\u30aa\u30c3\u30ab\u30e0\u306e\u5243\u5200\u3068\u306f\u601d\u8003\u306e\u904e\u7a0b\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u3001\u4ed6\u304c\u5168\u3066\u540c\u3058\u306a\u3089\u3070\u3001\u7c21\u6f54\u306a\u65b9\u3092\u9078\u3076\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8003\u3048\u65b9\u3067\u7c21\u6f54\u6027\u306e\u539f\u7406\u3068\u3082\u547c\u3070\u308c\u308b\u3002\u7279\u306b\u79d1\u5b66\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u306f\u3001\u8907\u96d1\u6027\uff08\u7c21\u6f54\u6027\uff09\u306f\u7570\u306a\u308b\u304c\u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6\u304c\u540c\u3058\u8907\u6570\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3068\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u6700\u3082\u7c21\u6f54\u306a\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u9078\u3076\u306e\u304c\u6700\u826f\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3001\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5f62\u3067\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u308b\u3002\u3053\u3053\u307e\u3067\u306f\u305d\u308c\u307b\u3069\u96e3\u3057\u3044\u72b6\u6cc1\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3002\u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6\u304c\u5168\u304f\u540c\u3058\u306a\u3089\u3070\u3001\u308f\u3056\u308f\u3056\u8907\u96d1\u306a\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u4f7f\u3046\u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u3069\u3069\u3053\u306b\u3082\u306a\u3044\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u5f53\u7136\u306a\u304c\u3089\u4e8b\u60c5\u306f\u305d\u308c\u307b\u3069\u7c21\u5358\u3067\u306a\u304f\u3001\u5f80\u5f80\u306b\u3057\u3066\u8907\u96d1\u6027\uff08\u7c21\u6f54\u6027\uff09\u3082\u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3082\u7570\u306a\u308b\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u5b58\u5728\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u72b6\u6cc1\u306e\u65b9\u304c\u591a\u3044\u3002\u305d\u3046\u3059\u308b\u3068\u8907\u96d1\u6027\uff08\u7c21\u6f54\u6027\uff09\u3068\u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6\u306e\u9593\u306b\u306f\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c9\u30aa\u30d5\u306e\u95a2\u4fc2\u304c\u751f\u3058\u3066\u304f\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9\u30fb\u30d0\u30ea\u30a2\u30f3\u30b9\u30fb\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c9\u30aa\u30d5\u3068\u547c\u3070\u308c\u3001\u7c21\u6f54\u6027\u3092\u597d\u3080\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9\uff08\u601d\u8003\u306e\u504f\u308a\uff09\u3068\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u5f53\u3066\u306f\u307e\u308a\u306e\u826f\u3055\u3067\u3042\u308b\u30d0\u30ea\u30a2\u30f3\u30b9\u306e\u9593\u306e\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c9\u30aa\u30d5\u306e\u95a2\u4fc2\u6027\u306e\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u306b\u306f\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u8907\u96d1\u306b\u3059\u308b\u3068\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u3088\u304f\u5f53\u3066\u306f\u307e\u308b\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3053\u308c\u306f\u5f80\u5f80\u306b\u3057\u3066\u904e\u5270\u9069\u5408\u3068\u547c\u3070\u308c\u308b\u72b6\u6cc1\u306b\u9665\u308b\u3002\u904e\u5270\u9069\u5408\u3068\u306f\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\uff08\u624b\u6301\u3061\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\uff09\u306b\u306f\u3088\u304f\u5f53\u3066\u306f\u307e\u308b\u304c\u3001\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u306f\u5f53\u3066\u306f\u307e\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3001\u3064\u307e\u308a\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3046\u72b6\u6cc1\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u3053\u308c\u3067\u306f\u79d1\u5b66\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u610f\u5473\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u3067\u306f\u30aa\u30c3\u30ab\u30e0\u306e\u5243\u5200\u306f\u306a\u305c\u6b63\u3057\u3044\u306e\u304b\u3002\u5f93\u6765\u306e\u8003\u3048\u65b9\u3067\u306f\u3001\u30d2\u30e5\u30fc\u30ea\u30b9\u30c6\u30a3\u30c3\u30af\u30b9\uff08\u79c1\u305f\u3061\u4eba\u9593\u306b\u7279\u6709\u306e\u8a8d\u77e5\u7684\u306a\u55dc\u597d\uff09\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3068\u304b\u30ce\u30fc\u30d9\u30eb\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u8cde\u3092\u53d7\u8cde\u3057\u305f\u30dd\u30fc\u30eb\u30fb\u30c7\u30a3\u30e9\u30c3\u30af\u304c\u8a00\u3063\u305f\u3088\u3046\u306b\u7c21\u6f54\u306a\u65b9\u304c\u300c\u7f8e\u3057\u3044\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3088\u3046\u306a\u54f2\u5b66\u7684\u30fb\u7f8e\u5b66\u7684\u55dc\u597d\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3068\u8003\u3048\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u30aa\u30c3\u30ab\u30e0\u306e\u5243\u5200\u306e\u6b63\u3057\u3055\u306f\u6570\u5b66\uff08\u7d71\u8a08\uff09\u7684\u306b\u3082\u793a\u3059\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f\u30c7\u30a4\u30f4\u30a3\u30c3\u30c9\u30fb\u30de\u30c3\u30ab\u30a4<\/a>\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u793a\u3055\u308c\u3001\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u30d5\u30a1\u30af\u30bf\u30fc\u3068\u547c\u3070\u308c\u308b\u3002\u901a\u5e38\u3001\u6570\u5b66\uff08\u7d71\u8a08\uff09\u3067\u306f\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u8907\u96d1\u3055\u306f\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30fc\u30bf\u3067\u6e2c\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u7d71\u8a08\u5b66<\/a>\u3067\u306f\u4e8c\u3064\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u5b58\u5728\u3059\u308b\u3068\u304d\u306b\u3044\u308f\u3086\u308b\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u30d5\u30a1\u30af\u30bf\u30fc<\/a>\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3082\u306e\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u6bd4\u8f03\u3092\u884c\u3046\uff08P\u306f\u78ba\u7387\u3001H\u306f\u4eee\u8aac\u3001O\u306f\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u8868\u3059\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \\(\\text{\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u30d5\u30a1\u30af\u30bf\u30fc}=\\frac{P(H_2 \\mid O)}{P(H_1 \\mid O)} = \\frac{P(O \\mid H_2) P(H_2)}{P(O \\mid H_1) P(H_1)}\\)<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u3053\u306e\u969b\u306b\u3001\u30d2\u30e5\u30fc\u30ea\u30b9\u30c6\u30a3\u30c3\u30af\u30b9\u3068\u304b\u7c21\u6f54\u306a\u65b9\u304c\u300c\u7f8e\u3057\u3044\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3088\u3046\u306a\u54f2\u5b66\u7684\u55dc\u597d\u3067\u3042\u308c\u3070\u3001\u305d\u308c\u306f\u7b49\u5f0f\u306e\u53f3\u8fba\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9805\u3067\u3042\u308b\u4e8b\u524d\u78ba\u7387\u306e\u6bd4\u7387\u306e\u554f\u984c\u3068\u306a\u308b\u3002\u305d\u308c\u306f\u305d\u308c\u3067\u6709\u7528\u306a\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3001\u4eca\u4e8b\u524d\u78ba\u7387\u306e\u6bd4\u7387\u3092\u7121\u8996\u3057\u3066\u8003\u3048\u3066\u307f\u308b\u3068\u3001\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u30d5\u30a1\u30af\u30bf\u30fc\u306f\u5c24\u5ea6\u6bd4<\/a>\u306b\u9084\u5143\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3002\u5c24\u5ea6\u306f\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30fc\u30bf\uff08\u03b8\uff09\u306e\u53d6\u308a\u3046\u308b\u5168\u3066\u306e\u5024\u3092\u7a4d\u5206\u3057\u305f\u3082\u306e\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001<\/p>\n\n\n\n \\(P(O \\mid H) = \\int P(O \\mid \\theta, H) \\, P(\\theta \\mid H) \\, d\\theta\\)<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u3068\u306a\u308b\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f\u89e3\u6790\u7684\u306b\u89e3\u304f\u3053\u3068\u304c\u96e3\u3057\u3044\u3053\u3068\u304c\u591a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3001\u30e9\u30d7\u30e9\u30b9\u8fd1\u4f3c\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u8fd1\u4f3c\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \\(P(O \\mid H) \\approx P(O \\mid \\hat{\\theta}, H) \\times \\frac{V_{\\text{\u4e8b\u5f8c}}}{V_{\\text{\u4e8b\u524d}}}\\)<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u3053\u3053\u3067\u53f3\u8fba\u7b2c\u4e00\u9805\u306f\u6700\u5c24\u6cd5<\/a>\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u3053\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u30d0\u30ea\u30a2\u30f3\u30b9\u306b\u76f8\u5f53\u3059\u308b\u3002\u901a\u5e38\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u53d6\u308a\u3046\u308b\u7bc4\u56f2\u304c\u591a\u3044\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u53f3\u8fba\u7b2c\u4e00\u9805\u306e\u6700\u5c24\u63a8\u5b9a\u306f\u9ad8\u3044\u5024\u3092\u5f97\u308b\u3002\u305d\u306e\u4ed6\u306e\u6761\u4ef6\u304c\u5168\u3066\u540c\u3058\u3067\u3042\u308c\u3070\u3001\u5f53\u7136\u5c24\u5ea6\u304c\u9ad8\u3044\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\uff08\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3078\u306e\u9069\u5408\u5ea6\u304c\u9ad8\u3044\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\uff09\u304c\u826f\u3044\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3068\u306a\u308b\u304c\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u306f\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9\u30fb\u30d0\u30ea\u30a2\u30f3\u30b9\u30fb\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c9\u30aa\u30d5\u304c\u5b58\u5728\u3059\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9\u3082\u8003\u3048\u306a\u3051\u308c\u3070\u306a\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3002\u4e0a\u5f0f\u306e\u53f3\u8fba\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9805\u304c\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9\u306b\u76f8\u5f53\u3059\u308b\u3002\u53f3\u8fba\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9805\u306f\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u5f97\u308b\u524d\u306b\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3068\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30fc\u30bf\u304c\u4e88\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u7bc4\u56f2\u3067\u3042\u308bV\u4e8b\u524d\u3068\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u5f97\u305f\u5f8c\u306b\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3068\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30fc\u30bf\u304c\u4e88\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u7bc4\u56f2\u3067\u3042\u308bV\u4e8b\u5f8c\u306e\u6bd4\u3067\u3042\u308a\u30011\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u4e8b\u524d\u78ba\u7387\u306f\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u304c\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u305f\u5f8c\u3001\u5c24\u5ea6\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u30a2\u30c3\u30d7\u30c7\u30fc\u30c8\u3055\u308c\u308b\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3001\u53f3\u8fba\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9805\u306f\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u304c\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u308b\u524d\u3068\u6bd4\u3079\u3001\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u304c\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u305f\u5f8c\u3069\u306e\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e88\u6e2c\u7bc4\u56f2\u304c\u53ce\u675f\u3057\u305f\u306e\u304b\u3092\u610f\u5473\u3059\u308b\u3002\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u8907\u96d1\u3060\u3068\u53f3\u8fba\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9805\u306f\u4f4e\u304f\u306a\u308a\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u5168\u4f53\u3078\u306e\u7f70\u5247\u9805\u3068\u3057\u3066\u6a5f\u80fd\u3059\u308b\u3002\u3064\u307e\u308a\u30d2\u30e5\u30fc\u30ea\u30b9\u30c6\u30a3\u30c3\u30af\u30b9\u3068\u304b\u7c21\u6f54\u306a\u65b9\u304c\u300c\u7f8e\u3057\u3044\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3088\u3046\u306a\u54f2\u5b66\u7684\u30fb\u7f8e\u5b66\u7684\u55dc\u597d\u3067\u3042\u308b\u4e8b\u524d\u78ba\u7387\u6bd4\u306a\u3057\u3067\u3082\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u7d71\u8a08\u306f\u30aa\u30c3\u30ab\u30e0\u306e\u5243\u5200\u3092\u5177\u73fe\u5316\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u3082\u3061\u308d\u3093\u30d2\u30e5\u30fc\u30ea\u30b9\u30c6\u30a3\u30c3\u30af\u30b9\u3068\u304b\u7c21\u6f54\u306a\u65b9\u304c\u300c\u7f8e\u3057\u3044\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3088\u3046\u306a\u54f2\u5b66\u7684\u30fb\u7f8e\u5b66\u7684\u55dc\u597d\u3067\u3042\u308b\u4e8b\u524d\u78ba\u7387\u6bd4\u3082\u30aa\u30c3\u30ab\u30e0\u306e\u5243\u5200\u3068\u306a\u308a\u3046\u308b\u3002\u30aa\u30c3\u30ab\u30e0\u306e\u5243\u5200\u306f\u3044\u308f\u3086\u308b\u30a2\u30f3\u30d6\u30ec\u30e9\u30fb\u30bf\u30fc\u30e0\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u3055\u307e\u3056\u307e\u306a\u57fa\u6e96\u306e\u7dcf\u79f0\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u5225\u306e\u30aa\u30c3\u30ab\u30e0\u306e\u5243\u5200\u306e\u8003\u3048\u65b9\u306b\u306f\u60c5\u5831\u91cf\u57fa\u6e96\u306e\u8003\u3048\u65b9\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002\u6700\u3082\u6709\u540d\u306a\u3082\u306e\u306b\u8d64\u6c60\u60c5\u5831\u91cf\u57fa\u6e96\uff08AIC\uff09\u304c\u5b58\u5728\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \\(\\text{AIC} = – 2 \\ln(\\hat{L})+2k\\)<\/p>\n\n\n\n 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